Truth Social Enters Prediction Markets

Trump Media is betting big on prediction markets built into Truth Social, developed through an exclusive Crypto.com partnership. The initiative positions the app as a new challenger to Polymarket and Kalshi, blending political conversation with real-money event trading. The companies promise a compliant rollout through a CFTC-registered exchange, aiming to bring prediction trading into the mainstream, directly inside a social platform.

Earlier this year, Trump Media deepened its relationship with Crypto.com by adopting the CRO token for its corporate treasury and payment systems. That move laid the financial groundwork for today’s integration: a shared settlement layer that now extends from the company’s balance sheet to user-level trading activity inside Truth Social.

How Truth Predict Works

The feature, called Truth Predict, will be powered by Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA). CDNA is a CFTC-registered exchange authorized to clear event-based futures. According to the joint announcement, users will be able to trade on outcomes across politics, macro-economic data, commodities, and sports, all within Truth Social.

Funding will rely on “Truth Gems,” the platform’s in-app points. The Gems can be converted into CRO, Crypto.com’s native token, to open and settle contracts. A U.S. beta is expected “in the near future,” followed by a phased international rollout.

Combining social engagement and speculation, the social platform will offer a new gateway for prediction market trading. It merges user-generated content with compliant financial infrastructure.

The Compliance Moat

Unlike most decentralized platforms, Truth Predict’s trading engine operates on a CFTC-registered exchange. That distinction could prove decisive. Notably, Polymarket faced U.S. enforcement action in 2022 and continues to restrict American users. At the same time, Kalshi operates legally as a Designated Contract Market but remains limited in scope and lacks social features.

CDNA’s amended DCO/DMO licenses, granted in September 2025, provide Truth Social with a fully regulated clearing structure from day one. That’s a rare asset in crypto-linked prediction trading. This framework could draw institutional users who have long avoided decentralized markets for compliance reasons.

Competing Models: Polymarket, Kalshi, and X

The competitive landscape around event speculation is evolving fast.

• Polymarket runs on Polygon and partnered with X (formerly Twitter) in mid-2025 to display market odds within posts. However, users still trade externally, not directly inside X.
• Kalshi prediction market remains the benchmark for U.S. regulatory approval, but its UX is that of a trading terminal, not a social platform.
• Truth Predict integrates both, allowing users to view, share, and trade markets inside their feeds.

This Polymarket comparison underscores the advantage of pairing a captive audience with a compliant backend. Still, liquidity and perception challenges will determine whether engagement translates into volume.

>>> Read more: Polymarket X Partnership Brings Prediction Markets Mainstream

Strategic Advantages

Truth Social’s politically engaged community gives it an immediate user base. Election-focused contracts could become viral content, driving visibility far beyond crypto audiences.

The conversion of Truth Gems to CRO strengthens Crypto.com’s ecosystem. At the same time, Truth Social receives a functional bridge between social media and financial speculation. Together, the partners are testing a model where conversation, sentiment, and trading coexist, potentially setting a new standard for crypto-fintech integration.

Major Risks and Execution Challenges

Success will depend on execution. Liquidity fragmentation may hinder early adoption if outside traders resist joining a politically branded network, while perception risk could limit appeal among neutral or institutional users.

Regulatory scrutiny is another challenge: even with CDNA’s licenses, integrating real-money contracts into a social platform remains uncharted ground. Finally, user education is crucial! The average social media user may not grasp contract settlement mechanics or risk exposure without clear tutorials and safeguards.

Unless these factors are addressed proactively, Truth Predict may struggle to expand beyond its core base.

Market Implications

If Truth Predict gains traction, Truth Social’s entry into prediction markets could accelerate mainstream adoption of compliant, social-native speculation tools. The project also signals Crypto.com’s ambition to expand its U.S. derivatives footprint and rebuild trust after years of global retrenchment.

For competitors, the move could serve as a catalyst. Both Polymarket and Kalshi may need to enhance social features or expand marketing to maintain relevance.

Conclusion: Social Speculation Meets Compliance

By launching Truth Predict, Truth Social is turning speculation into a social experience. The integration unites regulated trading with real-time discourse; something the crypto sector has long hinted at but never executed at scale.

The platform’s success will hinge on two things: user trust and market depth. If it delivers both, Truth Social could transform how prediction markets connect to public conversation. If not, it will stand as an ambitious experiment that pushed the boundaries of what social media can do.